Techniques for making more accurate electoral forecasts

Abstract

Few studies offer a view of the most effective techniques when making electoral forecasts. Given this situation, this article aimed to identify the techniques that allow more accurate electoral forecasts, through a review of 32 articles from the last twenty years. The scope of this article was exploratory, limiting itself to obtaining an overview of the subject and not offering an exhaustive description. The exploration of the scientific literature showed that the techniques that are currently most used in electoral forecasts are the opinion poll, the analysis of the economic indicators of the government in power, the review of the electoral history, and the combined models; while less frequent techniques are those based on electoral markets (bets) or the level of political affiliation.